As perceived risk increases, so too does the motivation to adopt precautionary measures. Failure to appraise the risk of a particular disease in a realistic way not only increases the likelihood of experiencing ill health, it may also lead to disease proliferation, overloaded public health facilities, serious illness and death. Research into behavioural responses to health threats suggests that risk perception is a major determinant in adopting measures to prevent disease. Fundamental to the adoption of and adherence to such behaviours are a range of psychological and social factors, in particular a person’s perception of risk, which is thought to play a key role in combating twenty-first-century global health threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The current coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has highlighted the importance of personal protective behaviour in limiting the spread of disease, as well as the reluctance of some individuals and groups to comply with public health recommendations, such as social distancing. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network ( n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries-France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one’s risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats.
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